Resources · Making lowball offers that actually close
What percentage is a lowball offer? The real numbers by market and seller
Updated · by the LowBaller team
A lowball offer is usually 10 percent or more under list price on a listed home, and 20 percent or more is a lowball almost anywhere. Off-market, the percentage is measured against estimated value instead, and distressed owners can support 15 to 50 percent under depending on how forced their situation is. Most answers online give you one number. One number is wrong, because the same 20 percent is an insult on a fresh listing in a hot market and a generous offer to an owner with an auction date. Below are the tables by market condition and by seller situation, plus the dollar amounts at common price points.
Every row says where it comes from. Some numbers are published market data, some are targets from our offer model, and some are illustrative planning ranges. They are labeled so you always know which is which.
What percentage under asking is considered a lowball?
There is no official definition. In practice, sellers and agents judge your offer against what similar homes actually sell for, not against the list price alone. That makes published sale data the best yardstick for listed homes.
Redfin reported in February 2026 that 62.2 percent of 2025 homebuyers paid less than list price, the highest share since 2019, and that the typical buyer who paid under list got a 7.9 percent discount, the largest since 2012. So 5 to 8 percent under list is ordinary negotiation right now. Around 10 percent is where an offer starts to read as a lowball, and 20 percent or more needs a strong, visible reason.
Off-market is different. There is no list price to discount from, so the percentage is measured against estimated as-is value, and the owner's situation, not the market, sets how deep you can go. The sections below cover both.
The benchmark: 7.9 percent
Redfin's February 2026 report found the typical 2025 buyer who paid under list got 7.9 percent off. Treat that as the line between a normal offer and a lowball on a listed home.
Lowball percentage by market condition (listed homes)
Market heat moves the line. In a hot market with multiple offers, even 5 percent under can feel low. In a slow market with rising inventory, sellers expect to negotiate. NAR's September 2026 existing-home sales report showed a 4.8-month supply of homes and a national median of 33 days on market. Local markets differ widely, so check your own numbers before you pick a percentage.
| Market condition | Normal offer | Reads as a lowball | Needs a strong reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot: multiple offers, under 2 weeks on market | At or over list | 5% or more under | 10% or more under |
| Balanced | 3 to 8% under list | 10% or more under | 20% or more under |
| Slow: rising inventory, frequent cuts | 5 to 10% under list | 15% or more under | 25% or more under |
| Stale listing: 60+ days, one or more cuts | 8 to 12% under list | 20% or more under | 30% or more under |
| Stale, plus vacant, estate or relocation | 10 to 15% under list | 25% or more under | 35% or more under |
Lowball percentage by seller situation (off-market)
Off-market, the discount comes from how forced the owner's situation is. The more forced the outcome, the deeper the discount a seller can rationally accept, because the alternative (an auction, a tax sale, another year of carrying an empty house) can cost them more.
LowBaller's model targets start bids around 40 to 50 percent under estimated value on hard distress, with likely closes around 35 to 45 percent under, and around 15 to 30 percent under on softer situations like tired absentee owners. The rows in between are illustrative planning ranges, labeled as such. Each situation shows up in public records: pre-foreclosures, tax-delinquent properties and vacant properties.
Discount by distress signal (midpoint of each band)
Model start bid band 40 to 50%
Model start bid band 40 to 50%
Illustrative 25 to 40%
Illustrative 20 to 35%
Illustrative 20 to 35%
Model band 15 to 30%
Illustrative 8 to 12% under list
Redfin, February 2026
| Seller situation | Start bid (under value) | Likely close (under value) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auction scheduled | 40 to 50% | 35 to 45% | Model target |
| Deep tax delinquency (multiple years) | 40 to 50% | 35 to 45% | Model target |
| Pre-foreclosure, no sale date | 25 to 40% | Set by the payoff | Illustrative |
| Inherited or probate, heirs far away | 20 to 35% | Set by the heirs' agreement | Illustrative |
| Vacant, long-held | 20 to 35% | Set by the carrying costs | Illustrative |
| Tired absentee landlord | 15 to 30% | Within 15 to 30% | Model target |
| Any situation with low equity | Capped by the payoff | Often no deal | Equity cap |
What a lowball offer looks like in dollars
Percentages hide how big the gap feels to a seller, and sellers think in dollars. Here is the same set of discounts at three price points. The middle column uses the US median existing-home price of $417,500 from NAR's September 2026 report.
Notice how the dollar gap grows with price. Ten percent off a $750,000 home is $75,000, more than 30 percent off a $200,000 house ($60,000). The seller reacts to the dollars, so give your reason in dollars too.
| Discount | $200,000 home | $417,500 home | $750,000 home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% under | $190,000 | $396,625 | $712,500 |
| 10% under | $180,000 | $375,750 | $675,000 |
| 20% under | $160,000 | $334,000 | $600,000 |
| 30% under | $140,000 | $292,250 | $525,000 |
| 40% under | $120,000 | $250,500 | $450,000 |
| 50% under | $100,000 | $208,750 | $375,000 |
Why equity caps the lowball percentage
A seller's motivation sets how far they want to go. Their equity sets how far they can go. If they owe 80 percent of value, a 30 percent discount means bringing cash to closing, which a distressed owner usually cannot do.
Example: a $300,000 house with a $150,000 payoff has 50 percent equity. Allow about 2 percent of the price for closing costs and the deepest possible discount is about 49 percent, at which point the owner nets zero. A fair offer leaves them real cash, so the practical limit sits well inside that.
This is why LowBaller caps every suggested offer so it still clears the owner's estimated mortgage and closing costs, and ranks properties by pressure times equity rather than pressure alone. The lowball offer calculator runs the same check on any number you are considering.
| Owner's equity | Deepest discount before the owner nets zero | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Under 15% | Under about 13% | A cash lowball has almost no room; short sale territory |
| 30% | About 29% | Only soft discounts fit |
| 50% | About 49% | Hard-distress discounts can fit |
| 60% or more | About 59% or more | Deep discounts can still leave the owner cash |
When a deeper percentage is fair to the seller
A deep discount is fair when it trades price for things the seller genuinely needs: speed before a deadline, no repairs, no showings, no commission and a closing that will not fall through. It is not fair when the seller has no pressure and you are counting on them not knowing what the house is worth.
To see how many sellers in each situation are near you, check the Distress Index for your metro or run the free market scan. A deeper percentage is fair when:
- The seller faces a date: an auction, a tax sale or a probate deadline.
- The house needs work the seller cannot pay for or manage.
- Carrying costs are real, such as an empty house that still owes taxes, insurance and utilities every month.
- Your number clears their payoff and leaves them cash.
- You give them time to check your number with an agent or attorney.
How to justify your percentage in one sentence
Whatever percentage you choose, the seller needs to hear why. One sentence is enough, and it should match the situation. Example lines are below. For how far different sellers tend to move, see how much motivated sellers come down.
- Stale listing: The home has been listed 94 days with two price cuts, so I am offering $255,000 cash with a 7-day inspection.
- Repairs: The roof and HVAC need about $30,000 of work, which is built into my $210,000 offer.
- Tax delinquency: At $180,000 the back taxes are paid at closing and you keep the rest in cash.
- Inherited: One offer, one closing and nothing to clean out, at $190,000.
- Tired landlord: $230,000 cash with the tenants in place, so you never handle another turnover.
Frequently asked questions
Is 10 percent below asking a lowball offer?
On most listed homes, 10 percent under asking is where lowball territory starts. Redfin reported that the typical 2025 buyer who paid under list got 7.9 percent off, so 10 percent is a little deeper than normal. It works best with a reason, such as long days on market, needed repairs or an all-cash, quick close.
Is 20 percent below asking too low?
On a fresh listing in a normal market, 20 percent under asking is usually too low and may get no reply. It becomes reasonable on stale listings with price cuts, homes needing major repairs, or off-market sellers under real pressure, as long as the price still clears what the owner owes on the house.
What is the lowest percentage a seller will accept?
The lowest a seller can accept is the price that still pays off their mortgage, liens and closing costs. Above that floor, pressure decides. LowBaller's model targets likely closes around 35 to 45 percent under value for owners facing a scheduled auction or deep tax delinquency, while an owner with no deadline may accept little below market.
Do lowball percentages differ for cash offers?
Yes, slightly. Cash removes financing and appraisal risk, so some sellers trade a little price for it, especially when they need to close fast. Cash alone rarely justifies a deep discount on a well-priced listing, though. The discount still has to be explained by the house, the timeline or the seller's situation.
How do you calculate a lowball offer percentage?
Divide the gap by the reference price. On a listed home use the list price; off-market use estimated as-is value. Example: offering $240,000 on a $300,000 value is a $60,000 gap divided by $300,000, or 20 percent under. Then confirm the result still clears the seller's payoff plus closing costs.
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