Resources · Making lowball offers that actually close
Lowball offer on a house: how low you can go, with the math
Updated · by the LowBaller team
A lowball offer on a house is an offer well below what the home is worth, and how low you can go is set by the seller's situation and their payoff. On a fresh listing that means about 10 percent under list; on an off-market house heading to auction it can mean 40 to 50 percent under value. Below: a decision table by seller situation, the equity cap that decides whether any number can close, a worked example with every line of math, and how to present it.
One rule runs through all of it. A lowball is not a trick. It is a fair trade when the seller values speed and certainty more than the last dollar, and your number still leaves them cash after the mortgage is paid.
How low can you offer on a house?
There is no legal minimum. You can offer any number you like. The useful question is how low you can go and still get a signature, and that depends on three things: whether the house is listed, how much pressure the owner is under, and how much equity they hold.
On listed homes, the market sets the bar. Redfin reported in February 2026 that 62.2 percent of 2025 homebuyers paid less than list price, and that the typical buyer who paid under list got a 7.9 percent discount, the largest since 2012. So on a listed home, 10 percent under list is already deeper than the typical discount, and anything past that needs a visible reason: long days on market, price cuts, or repairs the listing photos do not show.
Off-market, you price against estimated as-is value and the owner's situation sets the discount. LowBaller's model targets start bids around 40 to 50 percent under value on hard distress (a scheduled auction, deep tax delinquency) with likely closes around 35 to 45 percent under, and 15 to 30 percent under for softer situations like a tired absentee landlord. These are model targets, not measured closed deals.
| Seller situation | Where to start | Where it tends to land | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh listing, competitive market | 3 to 8% under list | At or near list | Illustrative; Redfin's 2025 typical below-list discount was 7.9% |
| Listed 60+ days with a price cut | 10 to 20% under list | 8 to 15% under list | Illustrative |
| Tired absentee landlord, off-market | 15 to 30% under value | Within the same band | Model target |
| Inherited or vacant, off-market | 20 to 35% under value | Set by the heirs or the carrying costs | Illustrative |
| Pre-foreclosure, no sale date yet | 25 to 40% under value | Set by the payoff | Illustrative |
| Auction scheduled or deep tax delinquency | 40 to 50% under value | 35 to 45% under value | Model target |
| Owner owes 85% or more of value | Little or no room under value | Short sale, retail listing or pass | Equity cap |
The equity cap: the floor no seller can go under
Motivation sets how far a seller wants to go. Equity sets how far they can go. If your offer does not cover what they owe, they cannot accept it unless they bring cash to closing or their lender approves a short sale. This is where many well-aimed lowballs quietly die.
Seller's floor = mortgage payoff + other liens + closing costs + the cash they need to move.
The payoff is more than the loan balance. In pre-foreclosure it adds missed payments, late fees and foreclosure costs, and it grows every month. Other liens include back taxes, HOA liens and judgments. Seller closing costs on a cash sale with no agent typically run 1 to 3 percent of price. Early numbers are estimates; the lender's payoff statement is the real one.
LowBaller caps every suggested offer so it still clears the owner's estimated mortgage and closing costs. Unlocking a seller pulls the county record (foreclosure filing, amount in default, loans, taxes) and re-scores the offer on the verified payoff.
An offer under the payoff is not a lowball, it is a non-offer
If your number is below what the owner owes, their motivation does not matter. Either the lender agrees to a short sale, which is slow and uncertain, or you move to the next house.
How much to lowball a house: a worked example
Example: a three-bedroom house with an estimated as-is value of $300,000. It needs about $35,000 of work, and renovated homes nearby sell around $340,000, the after-repair value (ARV). The owner is in pre-foreclosure with an auction date set. The loan balance is $120,000, plus $9,000 of missed payments and foreclosure fees, plus $6,000 of back taxes.
Your ceiling comes from your exit. With the 70 percent rule, 70 percent of $340,000 is $238,000; minus $35,000 of repairs, your maximum is $203,000.
The seller's floor is the $129,000 payoff plus $6,000 of taxes plus about $3,600 of closing costs (2 percent of a $180,000 price), or about $138,600.
The offer. The model targets for a scheduled auction put the start bid 40 to 50 percent under value and the likely close 35 to 45 percent under. Opening at 45 percent under is $165,000. A close at 40 percent under is $180,000. Both sit above the seller's floor and below your ceiling, so a deal exists, and at $180,000 the owner walks away with about $41,400 instead of risking the auction.
Change one number: with a $250,000 payoff, the floor passes $256,000, far above your $203,000 ceiling. No cash lowball can close, so you move to the next property.
Worked example: where the offer has to land
70% of $340,000 ARV minus $35,000 repairs
40% under value
45% under value
Payoff, back taxes and closing costs
Listed vs off-market vs distressed: how the rules change
Listed homes. Your offer goes through the listing agent on your state's purchase contract. The seller has other buyers, so the discount needs a visible reason: days on market, price cuts, an inspection report. NAR's September 2026 existing-home sales report put the national median time on market at 33 days, so a listing at 90 days has sat nearly three times as long and gives you a real reason to ask.
Off-market, no deadline. Tired landlords, inherited houses and vacant properties. Nobody competes with you, but nothing forces a sale either. Your discount buys convenience: no repairs, no showings, one closing. Expect a slower yes.
Distressed, with a clock. A pre-foreclosure or a tax-delinquent property heading to sale has a date that forces a decision. This is where the deepest discounts are supported, and also where you owe the seller the most care: show the math, give them time to get advice, and never pressure.
Buying from an owner in foreclosure has extra rules
Several states regulate purchases from owners in foreclosure, with required contract language and cancellation periods. Rules vary by state, so have a local real estate attorney review your contract before anyone signs.
How to present a lowball offer on a house
Delivery decides whether a low number reads as an insult or a solution. Use the same order every time.
- 1
Lead with the seller's reason
Open with their situation in neutral words: the house has been empty for a year, or the listing has been up 120 days. A reason makes the number make sense before they hear it.
- 2
Stack certainty before price
State cash with proof of funds, no financing contingency, an inspection period of 7 days or less, an as-is purchase and a closing date they choose. Each term removes a risk a retail buyer brings.
- 3
Say the number once, with one line of math
Give your start bid and one reason: the repairs, the timeline, or the commission they will not pay. Then stop talking and let them respond.
- 4
Show them their net
If you know the payoff, show what they walk away with. A seller hears $41,000 in cash at closing more clearly than 40 percent under value.
- 5
Put it in writing the same day
Follow every call with a written offer: off-market, a letter plus an attorney-reviewed purchase agreement; listed, your state's form through the agent. Start from these lowball offer letter templates.
- 6
Book the next contact
Agree on a day to talk again before you hang up. A first no from a distressed owner is often a no for now, and their situation changes on a schedule: notices, sale dates, tax deadlines.
When a lowball offer on a house fails
Lowballs that go nowhere tend to share a few patterns. Check each one before you send a number. For the full list, see the 11 lowball offer mistakes that kill deals.
| Why it fails | What it looks like | What to do instead |
|---|---|---|
| The seller has no pressure | Owner-occupant, fresh listing, no filings | Offer near market, or skip it |
| The number is under the payoff | Offer below the mortgage plus liens | Estimate the payoff first; pass if it does not fit |
| No reason given | A bare number in a one-line email | Name the repairs, the timeline or the carrying cost |
| Too many contingencies | Financing, appraisal, a 21-day inspection | Cash, a short inspection, the seller's closing date |
| One contact, then silence | A single letter and no follow-up | Follow up on a schedule tied to their deadlines |
| Wrong person or channel | Calling a random number for an LLC | Mail the tax-roll address and the registered agent |
Find sellers where a lowball makes sense
The offer is the last step; the first is aiming it at owners whose situation supports it. LowBaller ranks every property in a ZIP or city by its Deal Score, pressure times equity, from public county records (foreclosure filings, tax delinquency, vacancy, probate, absentee owners, equity), with a suggested start bid and likely close already capped at the equity.
Start with the free market scan to see how many motivated sellers are near you, or test any number in the lowball offer calculator before you send it.
Frequently asked questions
How low can you offer on a house?
You can offer any amount, but a signature needs a number above the seller's payoff. On a fresh listing that usually means staying within about 10 percent of list. Off-market owners facing an auction or deep tax delinquency can support 40 to 50 percent under value when their equity is deep enough to cover the loan.
Is 20 percent under asking a lowball offer on a house?
Yes, on most listed homes 20 percent under asking is a lowball. Redfin reported the typical 2025 buyer who paid under list got 7.9 percent off, so 20 percent needs a visible reason, such as long days on market, price cuts or major repairs. Off-market, 20 percent under value is inside the band LowBaller's model targets for softer situations.
Should I lowball a house that has been on the market a long time?
Usually, yes. A listing far past the local median days on market, especially one with price cuts, has shown that the list price is not working. NAR put the national median at 33 days in its September 2026 report. Start 10 to 20 percent under list and justify the number with the listing history and any repairs.
What is the equity cap on a lowball offer?
The equity cap is the lowest price a seller can actually accept: their mortgage payoff plus other liens, closing costs and the cash they need to move. An offer below it cannot close unless the lender approves a short sale, so estimate the payoff from the county record before you send any number.
Is it legal to make a lowball offer on a house?
Yes, making a low offer is legal everywhere in the US. What some states regulate is how you buy from owners in foreclosure, with required contract terms and cancellation rights. Rules vary by state, so have a local real estate attorney review your purchase agreement before a distressed seller signs anything.
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