Free tool

Lowball offer calculator

The same model that prices every deal on LowBaller, free to use. Tell it the home's value and the owner's situation; it returns the number to open with, where the deal likely signs, and how confident to be.

$

The owner's situation

Unsure? Leave at 60%, the US average for long-term owners.

Open with

$277,000

~13% under market value

Likely close$305,000
Spread vs. market value$45,000
Estimate confidence72/100

Offers are capped so they still clear a typical mortgage at this equity level. The more distress signals you select, the deeper the model goes and the higher its confidence.

Find owners in this exact situation

How the model weighs each situation

Motivation is scored from documented county-record signals, calibrated on closed off-market deals. Equity then caps the discount: the offer must clear the owner's likely mortgage or no one signs.

Auction scheduled

The hardest deadline in real estate; discounts of 35 to 45% under value close.

40 pts

Pre-foreclosure filing

The clock is running but the owner still controls the sale.

22 pts

Probate / inherited

Heirs usually want cash and closure, not a project house.

16 pts

Tax lien

Interest compounds; every month makes a sale more attractive.

12 pts

Vacant

Pure carrying cost with no use; owners tire of paying for empty houses.

10 pts

Out-of-state owner

Distance turns any problem property into a bigger one.

9 pts

High equity (60%+)

Room to discount and still walk away with real money.

6 pts

Owned 15+ years

Long tenure means high equity and low anchoring to peak prices.

4 pts

Lowball offer FAQ

How much below asking is a lowball offer?

Anything 10% or more under market value reads as a lowball. On off-market distressed properties the workable range is much deeper: hard distress like a scheduled auction supports 35 to 45% under value, while softer situations such as absentee ownership close 15 to 30% under.

How does this calculator decide the offer?

It runs LowBaller's production pricing model: each documented situation adds motivation (an auction adds the most, long tenure the least), equity caps the discount so the offer still clears a typical mortgage, and the output is a start bid, a likely close and a confidence score.

Should I open with the start bid or the likely close?

Open with the start bid. It anchors the negotiation low while staying defensible given the situation. The likely close is where similar deals actually sign, so it is your ceiling; walking the gap between the two is the negotiation.

Does a lowball offer insult the seller?

Not when the situation is real and the offer is framed around speed and certainty. An owner facing an auction date does not need top dollar, they need a signed contract before the deadline. Clarity and a fast close are worth more than the last ten thousand dollars.

How do I find owners who would take a low offer?

County records show who is under pressure before any listing exists: foreclosure filings, tax delinquency, vacancy and absentee ownership. LowBaller compiles those records for any US ZIP, ranks every property by how forced the sale is, and includes this same offer math on each one.

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