Resources · Making lowball offers that actually close
Lowball offer on a house that has been on the market a long time
Updated · by the LowBaller team
On a house that has been on the market a long time, a lowball offer of 10 to 20 percent under the current list price is a reasonable opening, and deeper when the house is vacant or needs work. Days on market and the price-cut history tell you how far the seller has already moved. A stale listing is a seller who has heard no from the market week after week. Every showing that did not become an offer, every cut and every extra mortgage payment works in your favor, as long as your number still clears what they owe.
Below: how long is too long, a days-on-market table with the offer posture for each stage, how to read price cuts and relists, a worked example, the expired listing angle, and the timing that matters most.
How long is too long on the market?
Compare to the local median, not a national rule. For a national yardstick, NAR reported a median of 33 days on market for existing homes sold in September 2026. Realtor.com, which measures active listings rather than sold homes, put the median at 61 days in its September 2026 report. Different measures, same message: a house at 120 days is well outside normal.
Twice the local median means buyers have looked and passed. Three times the median, with price cuts, means the seller has heard the market's answer and is deciding whether to believe it.
Days on market: benchmarks versus a stale listing
Days on market table: how low to offer at each stage
| Days on market vs local median | What it usually means | Seller mindset | Offer posture (vs current list) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under the median | Normal; the market is still responding | Confident, waiting for full price | Near list unless you have a clear reason |
| 1 to 2 times the median | Showings, no strong offers | Starting to doubt the price | 5 to 10% under with clean terms |
| 2 to 3 times, one cut | Buyers saw it and passed | Open to a real offer | 10 to 15% under, citing the cut and condition |
| 3+ times, two or more cuts | A price or condition problem the seller now sees | Ready to negotiate | 15 to 20% under, cash, short close |
| Expired or withdrawn | The listing ended unsold | Frustrated, maybe done with agents | Price from value and payoff, not the old list |
| Back on market after a failed contract | A buyer walked, often over inspection or financing | Anxious, wants certainty | Ask what failed and price for it |
How to read the price-cut history
Price cuts are the seller talking. One cut is a test. Two cuts mean the agent has had the hard conversation. Three cuts in a few months often mean the seller is chasing the market down and will keep going until someone gives them a firm number.
Look at the size of each cut, the time between cuts, and the total distance from the original price. Small cuts far apart signal a stubborn seller. Bigger, faster cuts signal a seller with a reason, such as a new job, a second mortgage payment or an estate to close. Learn that reason before you offer.
Also check cumulative days on market. Some sellers withdraw and relist to reset the counter, and the listing history on major home search sites often still shows the earlier dates. Realtor.com's September 2026 report found 20.8 percent of active listings had a price reduction, so a house with two or more cuts is in a clearly struggling minority.
| Pattern | What it signals | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| One small cut after 30+ days | Testing the market | Watch, or offer modestly under with strong terms |
| Two cuts, 30 to 45 days apart | Agent and seller are adjusting | Offer under the next likely cut |
| Three or more quick cuts | A seller with a reason or a deadline | Ask why, then make a firm cash offer |
| Withdrawn and relisted | Trying to reset days on market | Use cumulative days, not the new count |
| No cuts after 120+ days | Anchored seller, or not really selling | Offer once in writing, follow up after expiry |
Worked example: a lowball on a stale listing
Example: a 4-bedroom listed at $425,000, now 130 days on market with two cuts, to $399,000 at day 45 and $379,000 at day 90. It is vacant and the owner relocated for work. Public records suggest a payoff around $240,000. The owner pays the mortgage, taxes, insurance and utilities on an empty house, about $3,100 a month.
Your offer: $335,000 cash, as-is, closing in 14 days. That is about 12 percent under the current list and 21 percent under the original price. The seller's alternative is to wait for a financed buyer at maybe $365,000, with two more months of carrying costs and appraisal, inspection and loan risk.
On paper, the seller gives up about $8,300 to end the carrying costs and the risk today. Some will take it, some will counter, and some will wait. All three answers tell you something. Your number clears their $240,000 payoff with room to spare, so it is a real option, not an insult.
| Line | Wait for a financed buyer | Your cash offer now |
|---|---|---|
| Sale price | $365,000, if it comes | $335,000 |
| Commission | -$20,075 (5.5%) | -$10,050 (3%, listing side only) |
| Seller closing costs | -$5,475 (1.5%) | $0 (you pay them) |
| Extra carrying costs | -$6,200 (2 more months) | $0 |
| Seller's net before payoff | $333,250 | $324,950 |
| Risk | Appraisal, inspection, loan approval | Cash, as-is, 14 days |
Expired listings: the second chance
When a listing agreement ends without a sale, the listing expires. The house is still there, the seller still wants out, and no agent stands between you and the owner. Expired listings are one of the few places where a listed seller becomes an off-market seller overnight.
Reach expired sellers by mail first, which is always fine, with a short letter that acknowledges the frustration and offers a simple path. If you call, call manually, only Do-Not-Call filtered numbers, between 8am and 9pm local time, and never send a cold text. Many expired sellers relist quickly, so timing matters.
Before you reach out, run the address through LowBaller's free distress check. If a stale or expired listing also carries a tax lien, pre-foreclosure filing or vacancy signal, the seller's pressure is bigger than the listing history shows.
While it is listed, go through the agent
While a listing is active, make your offer through the listing agent. Going around them puts the seller in an awkward spot and can create a commission dispute. Once the listing expires, the owner is free to talk.
When is the best time to make a low offer?
- Right after a price cut. The seller just admitted the old price was wrong, and your offer lands while they recalibrate.
- In the final weeks of the listing agreement. Ask the agent when it ends. A seller near the end is deciding between you and starting over.
- After a failed contract. A house back on market after a buyer walked is when certainty is worth the most.
- Before the next payment is due. A cash close before the next mortgage payment saves the seller a known, visible cost.
- In the slow season. In many markets fewer buyers shop in late fall and winter, so a stale listing faces even less competition.
Why hasn't the house sold? Check before you offer
If the reason is fixable, your low offer pays for the fix. If it is not, such as a busy road or a flood zone, price it into your number permanently, because the next buyer will discount it too. Then use how to make a lowball offer and the signs a seller will accept a lowball offer to shape the number.
Owners with the same pressure who never listed are easier still: no agent, no competing buyers. LowBaller's free market scan shows how many motivated sellers sit near a ZIP.
- Price: compare with recent sales, not with other listings.
- Condition: ask for any inspection report from a failed contract.
- Title or HOA problems: a lien, boundary dispute or special assessment scares buyers off.
- Unpermitted work or structural issues: these kill financing and explain long market times.
- Seller motivation: vacancy, relocation, divorce, an estate, or a second mortgage payment.
Frequently asked questions
How much should I offer on a house that has been on the market for a long time?
Compare its days on market to the local median. At two to three times the median with a price cut, 10 to 15 percent under the current list is a reasonable opening. Past three times with multiple cuts, 15 to 20 percent under. Always check that the number clears the seller's mortgage payoff and closing costs.
What does it mean when a house has been on the market for 6 months?
Usually the price is too high for its condition or location, or something is scaring buyers off, such as a title issue, unpermitted work or a bad inspection. Six months is far beyond the 33-day national median NAR reported for homes sold in September 2026. Find the reason before you price your offer.
Is it rude to lowball a house that is not selling?
Not if your number is grounded in recent sales, repair costs and the seller's carrying costs. A seller whose house has sat for months has already heard no from the market. A respectful written offer with clear reasoning, cash and a short close is a real option for them, even if it gets a counter.
Should I wait for a listing to expire before making an offer?
Sometimes. Offering just before a listing expires catches a seller deciding whether to start over. Waiting until after expiry lets you talk to the owner directly, but they may relist quickly with a new agent. If the house fits your numbers now, make the offer now through the listing agent.
Do price reductions mean the seller is desperate?
Not necessarily desperate, but more flexible. Realtor.com's September 2026 report found 20.8 percent of active listings had a price cut. Two or more cuts within a few months is a stronger signal, especially on a vacant house or one whose owner has moved. Ask the listing agent why the seller is selling.
Put this to work in your market.
Scan any US ZIP and see every motivated seller near you, ranked hardest-first.
Find motivated sellersKeep reading
- Lowball offer on a house: how low you can go, with the math
- 14 signs a seller will accept a lowball offer, ranked by strength
- Lowball offer on a FSBO: how to negotiate with a for sale by owner seller
- Lowball offer on a vacant house: how to find the owner and price the offer
- How much do motivated sellers really come down?